Our GBBO 2021 predictions based on social listening

*warning – contains spoilers*

This year’s Great British Bake Off is already off to a promising start with Paul Hollywood’s questionable mullet in the opening sequence, a cake that ended up on the floor (spoiler alert) and the first contestants crowned star baker.

Being the data geeks we are at Smoking Gun HQ, instead of settling on the sofa to watch the show with a cup of tea, we decide to use our social listening tools to try and predict this year’s winner.

In the same way we do for brands, we conducted an algorithmic deep dive into what people on Twitter were talking about and anaylsed the data to give us a picture of how viewers felt about each contestant.

By working our magic, and applying the results to past data patterns we have predicted who we think will be the winner of the Great British Bake Off 2021.

Who’s going home next?

Following Tom’s early departure, which was taken quite badly in the Twitter-sphere after his ‘wholesome’ personna won over many people, as well as more recently Jairzeno and Rochica, it’s likely Amanda will be the next one to go.

Whether it was her drunk mini-rolls, or ‘floor-stopper’ final bake in the first episode, which took a tumble off the counter, Amanda has received double the amount of negative comments compared to every other contestant – ouch. With words like ‘goodbye’ and ‘underrated’ associated with her, many viewers were surprised she has even made this far.

Although we don’t think she will be next, based on likability alone, poor Lizzie could have her days on the show numbered after she received the most anger from viewers – although we’re not sure whether this was down to her bakes or her wardrobe with one user stating they were going through ‘Lizzie-induced anxiety’.

The ones on the fence

A few contestants stirred up little reaction from the audience with large shares of neutral comments. Compared with patterns from previous years, Chigs, Freya and George are likely to stick around for the next few weeks based on their mediocre performances and inability to generate much reaction with users.

Star Baker territory 

With the likes of Giuseppe and Maggie sparking the most feelings of joy amongst Tweeters, we think these contestants will get a fair distance in the show. With endearing traits such as Giuseppi’s beloved eyebrows and Maggie’s charming personality and likeness to Prue, the audience has fallen in love.

As long as they continue to create Prue-approved bakes, they’re likely to spend a few more weeks in the tent.

And the winner in…

This was a tough one. Both Jurgen and Crystelle ranked very high in the likability factor (as well as producing very impressive bakes for week one).

With words including ‘love’ and ‘happy’ associated with Jurgen, as well as the fact that he won Star Baker, we predict this man will go far.

Perhaps slightly higher in the rank, however, is Crystelle. As the only contestant to have the name of her show-shopping ‘Bouq-cake’ creation named directly in social listening trends, many viewers thought that it should have been her crowned Star Baker.

Based on talent alone, Crystelle could be looking like this year’s winner. However, after analysing all the data from the show’s first night, she received an overwhelming amount of positive comments, with the biggest share of genuinely impressed and awe-inspired comments. Crystelle, we’ll see you in the final.

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